Why Andy Roddick's Miami win means less than you think

The Associated PressRoddick scrambles against Tomas Berdych on Sunday.
The talk started over the weekend and continued on through Monday, getting louder and louder.

Andy Roddick is back! people said. He's going to make a run at the French Open! This is his year for Wimbledon!

Every tennis fan in the U.S. -- certainly every one that I know -- is excited about Andy Roddick. No, not Andy Roddick. The new Andy Roddick. He’s moving like Fred Astaire, they say. Watch that footwork! He’s playing smart tennis, shocking Rafa by being aggressive, putting the double-whammy on Berdych by slicing his backhand and looping his forehand.

That Coach Stefanki is a genius!

Roddick is indeed playing very well. He earned the Masters title in Miami.

But come on. Now that we've had a day to celebrate the good old U.S. of A., we need to take a step back. Andy’s not going to make a run at Roland Garros. And when Wimbledon rolls around, he goes solidly in the Dark Horse category -- no more than that. The Big Four has not become the Big Five, and when it does, it’ll be because Juan Martin del Potro is healthy and motivated again.

Don't get me wrong. Roddick deserves credit for making the most of what he’s got. He deserves credit for putting his head down and gutting out serious results long after he realized he simply wasn’t ever going to get back to No. 1 in the world.

Well done, Andy.

But winning Miami does not portend bigger things to come. Let's face it, the new Andy Roddick isn't really all that different from the old Andy Roddick. Yes, he's a little quicker, but he's still not as quick as Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic. And yes, he's playing smarter, but did Andy really need Larry Stefanki to tell him he shouldn't play heavy-topspin backcourt tennis against Nadal or Federer or Nikolay Davydenko?

Stefanki believes that his charge, who turns 28 in September, can have a late career like Andre Agassi. That's not going to happen. Roddick is willing to work every bit as hard as Agassi, but he simply doesn't have the same level of talent. The new Roddick is still not a serious threat to Federer or Nadal when they're at their best. (Remember, just two weeks ago, an in-the-zone Roddick lost to Ivan Ljubicic.)

But that doesn't mean there's no hope at all. Roddick remains a threat to take advantage of an opening. Until he’s 31 or 32, he’s going to be a dangerous dark horse in three of the four majors each year. With more hard work, and a little bit of luck, his draw will open up at Wimbledon one day and he’ll get that second major title.

It’s not the career he imagined when he won the U.S. Open right after turning 21 and triumphantly hosted “Saturday Night Live.” But nobody’s perfect.

source :oregonlive.com